sigstar live demo
Explore real sigstar output for ETH and BTC: on-chain prices, daily moves, news coverage and the Fear & Greed Index on one timeline. Pick a day to see what was unusual, live in your browser with DuckDB.
Explore real sigstar output for ETH and BTC: on-chain prices, daily moves, news coverage and the Fear & Greed Index on one timeline. Pick a day to see what was unusual, live in your browser with DuckDB.
What sigstar printed
sigstar explain ETH --top 3
ETH on 2026-08-20: +17.90% (close 2,278.16 on onchain, previous 1,932.23) price: chainstar on-chain DEX price: ethereum, swaps_vs_stablecoins, high confidence, 93 swaps size: +10.0σ against the previous 30 days; #1 largest of the last 29 days What coincided (top 8 of 26 checked, ranked by |z|): 1. Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) [same day]: +5.1σ (unusual); value 16.00, median 0.00 2. Intraday high-low range [day before]: +3.1σ (unusual); value +6.79%, median +0.70% 3. On-chain DEX swaps [same day]: -1.9σ (normal range); value 222, median 335 4. News volume: topic 'sec' [same day]: +1.8σ (normal range); value 44, median 9 5. News volume: topic 'sec' [day before]: +1.8σ (normal range); value 39, median 8 6. News volume (GDELT articles) [same day]: +1.7σ (normal range); value 123, median 30 7. Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) [day before]: +1.5σ (normal range); value 5.00, median 0.00 8. News tone: topic 'sec' [day before]: +1.5σ (normal range); value 1.22, median 0.24 Other assets the same day: BTC: +10.19% (+7.3σ), same direction note: no derivatives z-scores for this day (not collected, or under 10 days) note: on-chain numbers span only 228 seconds of this day (chainstar slice), so they are a sample, not the day's total note: DEX swaps span only 228 seconds of this day on at least one chain (chainstar slice): DEX volume and swap counts are a sample note: the close is chainstar's on-chain price: the median of the day's DEX swaps (medium or high confidence), not an exchange closing price These are things that happened at the same time as the move, ranked by how unusual they were. Happening together does not mean one caused the other. Not financial advice. sigstar shows analytics and the rules you define; it does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything. ETH on 2026-10-07: -5.41% (close 2,566.84 on onchain, previous 2,713.69) price: chainstar on-chain DEX price: ethereum, swaps_vs_stablecoins, high confidence, 111 swaps size: -2.3σ against the previous 30 days; #3 largest of the last 30 days What coincided (top 8 of 14 checked, ranked by |z|): 1. On-chain DEX swaps [same day]: -2.5σ (unusual); value 232, median 420 2. On-chain DEX swaps [day before]: -1.6σ (normal range); value 294, median 434 3. On-chain DEX volume (chainstar) [day before]: -1.1σ (normal range); value $369.66k, median $1.17m 4. On-chain transactions [same day]: +0.6σ (normal range); value 7,751, median 6,680 5. On-chain DEX volume (chainstar) [same day]: -0.5σ (normal range); value $733.39k, median $1.17m 6. Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) [day before]: +0.5σ (normal range); value 3.00, median -1.00 7. Intraday high-low range [same day]: -0.4σ (normal range); value +0.65%, median +0.67% 8. Intraday high-low range [day before]: -0.4σ (normal range); value +0.71%, median +0.67% Other assets the same day: BTC: -3.71% (-1.9σ), same direction note: no derivatives z-scores for this day (not collected, or under 10 days) note: no news z-scores for this day (not collected, or under 10 days) note: on-chain numbers span only 228 seconds of this day (chainstar slice), so they are a sample, not the day's total note: DEX swaps span only 228 seconds of this day on at least one chain (chainstar slice): DEX volume and swap counts are a sample note: the close is chainstar's on-chain price: the median of the day's DEX swaps (medium or high confidence), not an exchange closing price These are things that happened at the same time as the move, ranked by how unusual they were. Happening together does not mean one caused the other. Not financial advice. sigstar shows analytics and the rules you define; it does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything. ETH on 2026-09-21: +5.73% (close 2,732.62 on onchain, previous 2,584.58) price: chainstar on-chain DEX price: ethereum, swaps_vs_stablecoins, high confidence, 130 swaps size: +2.2σ against the previous 30 days; #2 largest of the last 30 days What coincided (top 8 of 26 checked, ranked by |z|): 1. News tone: topic 'sec' [day before]: +2.4σ (unusual); value 1.57, median -0.05 2. News tone (GDELT, -10..+10) [day before]: +2.3σ (unusual); value 1.23, median 0.32 3. Intraday high-low range [same day]: +2.2σ (unusual); value +5.72%, median +0.72% 4. News tone: topic 'stablecoin' [day before]: +1.2σ (normal range); value 1.39, median 0.34 5. On-chain transactions [day before]: -1.1σ (normal range); value 5,203, median 6,434 6. On-chain transactions [same day]: +1.1σ (normal range); value 8,181, median 6,346 7. On-chain DEX swaps [same day]: -1.1σ (normal range); value 373, median 445 8. News volume: topic 'sec' [same day]: +1.0σ (normal range); value 14, median 8 Other assets the same day: BTC: +5.91% (+3.3σ), same direction note: no derivatives z-scores for this day (not collected, or under 10 days) note: on-chain numbers span only 228 seconds of this day (chainstar slice), so they are a sample, not the day's total note: DEX swaps span only 228 seconds of this day on at least one chain (chainstar slice): DEX volume and swap counts are a sample note: the close is chainstar's on-chain price: the median of the day's DEX swaps (medium or high confidence), not an exchange closing price These are things that happened at the same time as the move, ranked by how unusual they were. Happening together does not mean one caused the other. Not financial advice. sigstar shows analytics and the rules you define; it does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything. Licence mode: commercial. Sources used: fear_greed, gdelt, chainstar. Left out because their terms restrict commercial use or do not clearly allow it: coinbase, kraken, binance, binance_futures, okx, rss. This is a reading of published terms (SOURCES.md), not legal advice.
sigstar anomalies
day asset z robust feature (value) 2026-10-21 BTC +4.2σ n/a Stablecoin transfer volume ($611.94m) 2026-10-21 ETH +4.2σ n/a Stablecoin transfer volume ($611.94m) 2026-10-21 BTC +3.8σ +2.9σ News tone (GDELT, -10..+10) (1.20) 2026-10-19 BTC +3.4σ n/a Stablecoin transfer volume ($477.51m) 2026-10-19 ETH +3.4σ n/a Stablecoin transfer volume ($477.51m) Licence mode: commercial. Sources used: fear_greed, gdelt, chainstar. Left out because their terms restrict commercial use or do not clearly allow it: coinbase, kraken, binance, binance_futures, okx, rss. This is a reading of published terms (SOURCES.md), not legal advice.
sigstar forecast
BTC price (USD), last 2026-10-21: 83,638.50 backtest: 20 rolling origins, horizons 1-7 days model MAE MAPE vs naive naive 1,477.26 1.77% 1.00 ets 1,477.25 1.77% 1.00 arima 1,532.32 1.84% 1.04 no model beats naive by 2% or more: the naive forecast (no change) is shown 2026-10-22: 83,638.50 (80% interval 82,065.00 to 85,385.39) 2026-10-23: 83,638.50 (80% interval 81,889.93 to 86,027.48) 2026-10-24: 83,638.50 (80% interval 81,519.28 to 88,157.29) 2026-10-25: 83,638.50 (80% interval 81,290.16 to 88,988.00) 2026-10-26: 83,638.50 (80% interval 81,034.96 to 90,230.92) 2026-10-27: 83,638.50 (80% interval 81,115.78 to 93,547.86) 2026-10-28: 83,638.50 (80% interval 81,138.05 to 94,149.69) BTC volatility (annualised), last 2026-10-21: 35.1% backtest: 20 rolling origins, horizons 1-7 days model MAE MAPE vs naive naive 9.7% 36.54% 1.00 ets 9.7% 36.54% 1.00 arima 7.0% 28.09% 0.73 arima beats naive (MAE 0.73x naive's) 2026-10-22: 35.1% (80% interval 22.4% to 47.8%) 2026-10-23: 35.0% (80% interval 18.6% to 51.5%) 2026-10-24: 35.0% (80% interval 16.4% to 53.5%) 2026-10-25: 35.0% (80% interval 15.1% to 54.8%) 2026-10-26: 34.9% (80% interval 14.2% to 55.6%) 2026-10-27: 34.9% (80% interval 13.7% to 56.2%) 2026-10-28: 34.9% (80% interval 13.3% to 56.5%) ETH price (USD), last 2026-10-21: 2,469.62 backtest: 20 rolling origins, horizons 1-7 days model MAE MAPE vs naive naive 74.2781 2.97% 1.00 ets 74.2784 2.97% 1.00 arima 74.1263 2.96% 1.00 no model beats naive by 2% or more: the naive forecast (no change) is shown 2026-10-22: 2,469.62 (80% interval 2,411.07 to 2,526.59) 2026-10-23: 2,469.62 (80% interval 2,399.50 to 2,561.41) 2026-10-24: 2,469.62 (80% interval 2,399.75 to 2,597.18) 2026-10-25: 2,469.62 (80% interval 2,384.04 to 2,625.12) 2026-10-26: 2,469.62 (80% interval 2,357.30 to 2,617.25) 2026-10-27: 2,469.62 (80% interval 2,342.83 to 2,705.13) 2026-10-28: 2,469.62 (80% interval 2,336.35 to 2,752.91) ETH volatility (annualised), last 2026-10-21: 57.4% backtest: 20 rolling origins, horizons 1-7 days model MAE MAPE vs naive naive 12.9% 38.62% 1.00 ets 12.9% 38.61% 1.00 arima 10.3% 33.38% 0.80 arima beats naive (MAE 0.80x naive's) 2026-10-22: 55.1% (80% interval 36.2% to 74.0%) 2026-10-23: 52.7% (80% interval 26.7% to 78.8%) 2026-10-24: 50.9% (80% interval 21.6% to 80.3%) 2026-10-25: 49.6% (80% interval 18.4% to 80.7%) 2026-10-26: 48.6% (80% interval 16.4% to 80.7%) 2026-10-27: 47.8% (80% interval 15.1% to 80.4%) 2026-10-28: 47.2% (80% interval 14.2% to 80.1%) Not financial advice. sigstar shows analytics and the rules you define; it does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything. Licence mode: commercial. Sources used: fear_greed, gdelt, chainstar. Left out because their terms restrict commercial use or do not clearly allow it: coinbase, kraken, binance, binance_futures, okx, rss. This is a reading of published terms (SOURCES.md), not legal advice.
Daily brief
sigstar daily brief: 2026-10-21
Not financial advice. sigstar shows analytics and the rules you define; it does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything.
Licence mode: commercial. Sources used: fear_greed, gdelt, chainstar. Left out because their terms restrict commercial use or do not clearly allow it: coinbase, kraken, binance, binance_futures, okx, rss. This is a reading of published terms (SOURCES.md), not legal advice.
Each day below is a closed UTC day. Moves are close-to-close log returns on the reference venue (where that is chainstar's on-chain price, a day's price is the median of its DEX swaps); z-scores compare a value with the previous 30 days.
Overview
| Asset | Day | Close | 1-day | Size | 7-day | 30d vol | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 2026-10-21 | 83,638.50 | +1.88% | +0.9σ | +2.48% | 30% | low volatility |
| ETH | 2026-10-21 | 2,469.62 | +2.24% | +1.1σ | +0.77% | 39% | low volatility |
On-chain data: chainstar warehouse ~/sigstar-demo/sigstar/../chainstar/warehouse.duckdb, 92 days (2026-07-23 to 2026-10-22).
BTC
Latest day, 2026-10-21: +1.88% (+0.9σ)
| What coincided | When | Size | Value | Typical (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin transfer volume | same day | +4.2σ | $611.94m | median $155.95m |
| News tone (GDELT, -10..+10) | same day | +3.8σ | 1.20 | median -0.51 |
| On-chain active wallets | day before | -1.9σ | 807 | median 2,441 |
| On-chain transactions | day before | +1.8σ | 5,841 | median 4,054 |
| Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) | same day | +1.6σ | 8.00 | median -1.50 |
| News tone: topic 'stablecoin' | day before | +1.5σ | 1.41 | median 0.40 |
| News volume (GDELT articles) | same day | +1.5σ | 157 | median 86 |
| On-chain DEX swaps | day before | +1.4σ | 61 | median 26 |
Headlines behind the news readings:
- JPMorgan Asset Management sees Bitcoin beating stocks, but with a big catch (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
- Bitcoin surges over 1 percent as oil prices ease; inflation worries keep markets on edge (moneycontrol.com)
- Bitcoin price approaches $83,000 (en.apa.az)
- Bitcoin hovers around $83,000 as AI earnings revive tech, ZEC jumps 11% (coindesk.com)
- Bitcoin Stocks To Watch Now – October 18th (themarketsdaily.com)
BTC headlines that day (context, not ranked):
- JPMorgan Asset Management sees Bitcoin beating stocks, but with a big catch (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
- Bitcoin price approaches $83,000 (en.apa.az)
- Bitcoin surges over 1 percent as oil prices ease; inflation worries keep markets on edge (moneycontrol.com)
Same day elsewhere: ETH +2.24% (+1.1σ).
no derivatives z-scores for this day (not collected, or under 10 days)
on-chain numbers come from a single moment (one block) of this day (chainstar slice), so they are a sample, not the day's total
DEX swaps span only 228 seconds of this day on at least one chain (chainstar slice): DEX volume and swap counts are a sample
the close is chainstar's on-chain price: the median of the day's DEX swaps (medium or high confidence), not an exchange closing price
These are things that happened at the same time as the move, ranked by how unusual they were. Happening together does not mean one caused the other.
Largest moves in the window
2026-08-20: +10.19% (+7.3σ). Coincided with: Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) +5.1σ (same day); News tone (GDELT, -10..+10) -2.0σ (day before); News volume: topic 'sec' +1.8σ (same day).
2026-09-21: +5.91% (+3.3σ). Coincided with: News tone: topic 'sec' +2.4σ (day before); News tone: topic 'stablecoin' +1.2σ (day before); News volume: topic 'sec' +1.0σ (same day).
2026-08-21: +7.38% (+2.7σ). Coincided with: Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) +5.1σ (day before); Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) +2.1σ (same day); On-chain active wallets -2.1σ (same day).
Forecasts and how accurate they have been
| Target | Last | Model | In 7 days | 80% interval | Backtest MAE model / naive | Beats naive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| price | 83,638.50 | naive | 83,638.50 | 81,138.05 to 94,149.69 | 1,477.26 / 1,477.26 | no |
| volatility | 35.1% | arima | 34.9% | 13.3% to 56.5% | 7.0% / 9.7% | yes |
MAE is the average miss over rolling backtests of the last 20 days. When no model beats naive (no change), the naive forecast is the one shown: treat it as a baseline, not a prediction.
ETH
Latest day, 2026-10-21: +2.24% (+1.1σ)
| What coincided | When | Size | Value | Typical (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin transfer volume | same day | +4.2σ | $611.94m | median $155.95m |
| On-chain transactions | day before | +2.9σ | 9,259 | median 6,431 |
| On-chain DEX swaps | day before | +2.6σ | 770 | median 406 |
| On-chain active wallets | day before | +2.3σ | 5,768 | median 3,989 |
| On-chain DEX volume (chainstar) | day before | +1.8σ | $4.29m | median $1.07m |
| Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) | same day | +1.6σ | 8.00 | median -1.50 |
| News tone: topic 'stablecoin' | day before | +1.5σ | 1.41 | median 0.40 |
| News volume: topic 'stablecoin' | same day | +1.2σ | 64 | median 29 |
ETH headlines that day (context, not ranked):
- Ether ETF October Outflows Near $1.1B as ETH Price Drops 9.7% (cointelegraph.com)
- Bitmine Tom Lee Warns of a Potential Sell - Off in Ethereum. Here the Most Likely Scenario for ETH. (aol.com)
- Crypto News: Remittix Sets 41 New Fiat Currencies for PayFi Expansion as XRP Price Prediction Eyes $20 and JPMorgan Ethereum Move Revives a $12,000 ETH Target (manilatimes.net)
Same day elsewhere: BTC +1.88% (+0.9σ).
no derivatives z-scores for this day (not collected, or under 10 days)
on-chain numbers span only 228 seconds of this day (chainstar slice), so they are a sample, not the day's total
DEX swaps span only 228 seconds of this day on at least one chain (chainstar slice): DEX volume and swap counts are a sample
the close is chainstar's on-chain price: the median of the day's DEX swaps (medium or high confidence), not an exchange closing price
These are things that happened at the same time as the move, ranked by how unusual they were. Happening together does not mean one caused the other.
Largest moves in the window
2026-08-20: +17.90% (+10.0σ). Coincided with: Fear & Greed Index change (alternative.me) +5.1σ (same day); Intraday high-low range +3.1σ (day before); On-chain DEX swaps -1.9σ (same day).
2026-10-07: -5.41% (-2.3σ). Coincided with: On-chain DEX swaps -2.5σ (same day); On-chain DEX swaps -1.6σ (day before); On-chain DEX volume (chainstar) -1.1σ (day before).
2026-09-21: +5.73% (+2.2σ). Coincided with: News tone: topic 'sec' +2.4σ (day before); News tone (GDELT, -10..+10) +2.3σ (day before); Intraday high-low range +2.2σ (same day).
Forecasts and how accurate they have been
| Target | Last | Model | In 7 days | 80% interval | Backtest MAE model / naive | Beats naive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| price | 2,469.62 | naive | 2,469.62 | 2,336.35 to 2,752.91 | 74.2781 / 74.2781 | no |
| volatility | 57.4% | arima | 47.2% | 14.2% to 80.1% | 10.3% / 12.9% | yes |
MAE is the average miss over rolling backtests of the last 20 days. When no model beats naive (no change), the naive forecast is the one shown: treat it as a baseline, not a prediction.
Anomalies
| Day | Asset | Feature | Value | z | Robust z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | BTC | Stablecoin transfer volume | $611.94m | +4.2σ | n/a |
| 2026-10-21 | ETH | Stablecoin transfer volume | $611.94m | +4.2σ | n/a |
| 2026-10-21 | BTC | News tone (GDELT, -10..+10) | 1.20 | +3.8σ | +2.9σ |
| 2026-10-19 | BTC | Stablecoin transfer volume | $477.51m | +3.4σ | n/a |
| 2026-10-19 | ETH | Stablecoin transfer volume | $477.51m | +3.4σ | n/a |
Alerts
No rule fired on the latest day.
Relationships
| Daily return correlation | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ETH | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Asset | Beta vs | Full window | Last 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | BTC | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Asset | Volatility regime now | High-vol level | Low-vol level | Share of days high | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | low volatility | 39% | 28% | 5% | markov-switching (2 states) |
| ETH | low volatility | 91% | 25% | 20% | markov-switching (2 states) |
| Asset | Does this lead... | ...this? | Lag (days) | p | Adjusted p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Fear & Greed change | return | 3 | 0.029 | 1.000 |
| ETH | Fear & Greed change | return | 2 | 0.076 | 1.000 |
| BTC | News tone | abs return | 2 | 0.112 | 1.000 |
| BTC | Fear & Greed change | abs return | 3 | 0.116 | 1.000 |
| ETH | Fear & Greed change | abs return | 2 | 0.149 | 1.000 |
| BTC | News tone | return | 2 | 0.169 | 1.000 |
| BTC | News volume (z) | return | 3 | 0.220 | 1.000 |
| ETH | News volume (z) | return | 3 | 0.443 | 1.000 |
Granger tests ask whether a feature's past values helped predict returns in this sample beyond the returns' own past. Many pairs are tested, so the adjusted p (Bonferroni) is the one to read; even a low one is not evidence of cause, and short windows make all of these fragile.
On-chain activity (chainstar)
| Day | Chain | Transactions | Fee payers | Fees (native coin) | Stablecoin transferred | First to last block (s) | Blocks loaded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | bitcoin | 4,055 | 2,354 | 0.0265 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-23 | ethereum | 5,995 | 3,783 | 1.0620 | 134,217,841 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-07-24 | bitcoin | 3,709 | 2,354 | 0.0890 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-24 | ethereum | 6,187 | 3,755 | 0.5897 | 277,626,135 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | bitcoin | 5,275 | 1,135 | 0.0136 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | ethereum | 5,228 | 3,349 | 0.2734 | 82,042,341 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | bitcoin | 4,786 | 2,110 | 0.0269 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | ethereum | 4,785 | 3,078 | 0.3058 | 11,478,706 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | bitcoin | 4,100 | 2,705 | 0.0690 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | ethereum | 7,322 | 3,772 | 1.0553 | 80,011,818 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | bitcoin | 3,983 | 2,485 | 0.0636 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | ethereum | 6,099 | 3,909 | 0.7868 | 83,402,181 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | bitcoin | 4,353 | 2,111 | 0.0207 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | ethereum | 5,652 | 3,552 | 0.7577 | 313,711,959 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | bitcoin | 3,904 | 2,394 | 0.0405 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | ethereum | 5,733 | 3,447 | 3.1594 | 171,436,480 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | bitcoin | 3,554 | 1,905 | 0.0349 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | ethereum | 11,275 | 7,918 | 1.8642 | 105,086,832 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | bitcoin | 4,564 | 2,725 | 0.0471 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | ethereum | 5,231 | 3,147 | 0.3009 | 64,242,912 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | bitcoin | 4,406 | 1,287 | 0.0191 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | ethereum | 7,906 | 6,324 | 0.2555 | 18,274,379 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | bitcoin | 4,015 | 2,650 | 0.0848 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | ethereum | 5,676 | 3,482 | 1.7748 | 298,961,857 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | bitcoin | 3,491 | 2,045 | 0.0353 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | ethereum | 6,026 | 4,139 | 0.6203 | 87,821,655 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | bitcoin | 4,430 | 2,577 | 0.0356 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | ethereum | 6,356 | 4,301 | 0.5363 | 59,238,512 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | bitcoin | 4,367 | 2,629 | 0.0475 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | ethereum | 8,152 | 5,807 | 0.5671 | 95,322,963 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | bitcoin | 4,056 | 2,328 | 0.0371 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | ethereum | 6,034 | 3,791 | 0.6325 | 646,075,166 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | bitcoin | 4,562 | 2,012 | 0.0255 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | ethereum | 4,846 | 3,076 | 0.2179 | 54,469,085 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | bitcoin | 4,595 | 2,129 | 0.0324 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | ethereum | 5,894 | 4,231 | 0.2058 | 28,549,465 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | bitcoin | 2,706 | 1,126 | 0.0093 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | ethereum | 6,252 | 3,935 | 0.7203 | 125,219,501 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-11 | bitcoin | 4,541 | 2,584 | 0.0381 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | ethereum | 6,094 | 4,026 | 0.4269 | 136,960,819 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | bitcoin | 4,124 | 2,684 | 0.0526 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | ethereum | 6,080 | 3,808 | 0.6797 | 426,881,906 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | bitcoin | 4,435 | 2,447 | 0.0343 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | ethereum | 7,150 | 5,138 | 0.3299 | 72,873,235 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | bitcoin | 4,302 | 1,531 | 0.0190 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | ethereum | 8,848 | 6,418 | 0.6218 | 137,011,142 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | bitcoin | 3,551 | 1,752 | 0.0232 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | ethereum | 9,488 | 7,768 | 0.2802 | 20,296,976 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | bitcoin | 3,934 | 2,560 | 0.0413 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | ethereum | 6,799 | 4,859 | 0.2202 | 71,102,965 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | bitcoin | 4,041 | 2,525 | 0.0385 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | ethereum | 8,179 | 6,003 | 0.3291 | 142,162,963 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | bitcoin | 4,687 | 1,116 | 0.0138 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | ethereum | 8,843 | 6,528 | 0.3594 | 316,284,380 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | bitcoin | 3,519 | 2,361 | 0.0476 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | ethereum | 6,421 | 4,056 | 1.1008 | 67,910,877 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | bitcoin | 3,880 | 2,522 | 0.0568 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | ethereum | 8,771 | 5,773 | 1.7054 | 119,634,440 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | bitcoin | 3,460 | 1,123 | 0.0220 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | ethereum | 6,867 | 4,208 | 1.6387 | 203,532,671 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | bitcoin | 4,384 | 2,711 | 0.0394 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | ethereum | 5,286 | 3,474 | 0.4077 | 29,576,969 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | bitcoin | 5,573 | 1,285 | 0.0174 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | ethereum | 5,430 | 3,353 | 0.6987 | 402,588,272 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | bitcoin | 3,922 | 2,585 | 0.0453 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | ethereum | 6,568 | 4,174 | 0.8814 | 614,476,403 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | bitcoin | 3,886 | 1,847 | 0.0203 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | ethereum | 6,317 | 3,737 | 0.8725 | 125,551,253 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | bitcoin | 4,292 | 2,814 | 0.0341 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | ethereum | 6,745 | 4,336 | 0.6560 | 117,920,347 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | bitcoin | 5,741 | 1,212 | 0.0129 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | ethereum | 9,156 | 6,330 | 1.1279 | 71,052,848 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | bitcoin | 3,807 | 2,230 | 0.0317 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | ethereum | 5,147 | 3,180 | 6.6083 | 564,447,871 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | bitcoin | 4,008 | 1,895 | 0.0231 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | ethereum | 5,597 | 3,433 | 0.2113 | 20,927,781 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | bitcoin | 4,387 | 2,768 | 0.0358 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | ethereum | 5,572 | 3,509 | 0.3025 | 43,300,049 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | bitcoin | 169 | 116 | 0.0009 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | ethereum | 6,200 | 3,879 | 0.5074 | 256,982,115 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | bitcoin | 4,158 | 2,825 | 0.0504 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | ethereum | 6,723 | 4,021 | 0.5975 | 147,625,015 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | bitcoin | 5,743 | 1,522 | 0.0171 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | ethereum | 6,191 | 3,815 | 0.5153 | 502,339,528 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | bitcoin | 4,448 | 2,289 | 0.0263 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | ethereum | 6,142 | 3,804 | 0.5686 | 153,733,251 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | bitcoin | 3,660 | 2,926 | 0.0348 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | ethereum | 6,792 | 4,228 | 0.7209 | 213,820,902 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | bitcoin | 4,104 | 2,218 | 0.0246 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | ethereum | 5,884 | 3,705 | 0.4517 | 37,035,631 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | bitcoin | 5,552 | 846 | 0.0114 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | ethereum | 5,999 | 3,767 | 0.4275 | 44,485,324 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | bitcoin | 3,731 | 1,768 | 0.0238 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | ethereum | 11,529 | 9,141 | 0.5897 | 88,881,523 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | bitcoin | 3,972 | 2,489 | 0.0486 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | ethereum | 7,949 | 5,211 | 1.0090 | 528,176,739 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | bitcoin | 3,547 | 2,119 | 0.0318 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | ethereum | 6,493 | 4,174 | 0.5854 | 323,744,340 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | bitcoin | 4,541 | 1,254 | 0.0163 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | ethereum | 9,012 | 6,450 | 0.6547 | 115,122,336 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | bitcoin | 4,175 | 2,713 | 0.0421 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | ethereum | 7,287 | 4,042 | 6.6133 | 312,909,323 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | bitcoin | 3,846 | 2,510 | 0.0381 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | ethereum | 5,072 | 3,169 | 0.2540 | 25,322,932 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | bitcoin | 4,161 | 2,623 | 0.0429 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | ethereum | 5,363 | 3,267 | 0.2613 | 12,028,387 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | bitcoin | 4,496 | 2,638 | 0.0326 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | ethereum | 7,110 | 4,122 | 0.6881 | 71,096,099 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | bitcoin | 2,784 | 1,777 | 0.0333 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | ethereum | 6,374 | 4,110 | 0.8214 | 103,621,644 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | bitcoin | 3,782 | 2,489 | 0.0434 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | ethereum | 8,280 | 5,665 | 0.4997 | 90,398,118 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | bitcoin | 4,243 | 2,735 | 0.0239 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | ethereum | 8,099 | 5,360 | 0.9802 | 1,720,459,117 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | bitcoin | 3,870 | 2,598 | 0.0375 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | ethereum | 6,715 | 4,063 | 2.2609 | 390,557,090 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | bitcoin | 4,445 | 2,902 | 0.0389 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | ethereum | 5,988 | 3,610 | 0.4396 | 32,772,829 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | bitcoin | 4,038 | 2,496 | 0.0280 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | ethereum | 5,203 | 3,180 | 0.2834 | 285,169,367 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | bitcoin | 4,067 | 2,609 | 0.0518 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | ethereum | 8,181 | 5,476 | 1.0228 | 232,898,983 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | bitcoin | 4,041 | 2,692 | 0.0422 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | ethereum | 8,432 | 5,545 | 0.6352 | 131,602,996 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | bitcoin | 3,794 | 2,386 | 0.0233 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | ethereum | 6,402 | 3,818 | 0.6644 | 93,116,141 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | bitcoin | 3,935 | 2,629 | 0.0652 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | ethereum | 5,790 | 3,415 | 1.1039 | 124,581,935 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | bitcoin | 3,510 | 1,840 | 0.0252 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | ethereum | 7,243 | 4,258 | 1.7794 | 278,755,151 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | bitcoin | 6,650 | 404 | 0.0060 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | ethereum | 5,714 | 3,316 | 0.3368 | 34,301,003 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | bitcoin | 4,279 | 2,643 | 0.0227 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | ethereum | 5,438 | 3,333 | 0.8837 | 29,935,998 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | bitcoin | 6,813 | 555 | 0.0079 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | ethereum | 8,347 | 5,823 | 2.2773 | 160,882,984 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | bitcoin | 4,030 | 2,697 | 0.0502 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | ethereum | 8,035 | 5,318 | 2.0385 | 243,204,744 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | bitcoin | 4,158 | 2,621 | 0.0752 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | ethereum | 6,563 | 4,141 | 0.7967 | 368,786,288 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | bitcoin | 2,495 | 1,669 | 0.0397 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | ethereum | 6,863 | 4,163 | 0.8866 | 131,059,361 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | bitcoin | 4,126 | 2,636 | 0.0349 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | ethereum | 6,373 | 3,996 | 0.9190 | 136,156,092 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | bitcoin | 4,160 | 2,629 | 0.0900 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | ethereum | 5,550 | 3,301 | 0.2829 | 46,751,272 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | bitcoin | 4,163 | 2,351 | 0.0317 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | ethereum | 5,153 | 3,117 | 0.4203 | 10,001,625 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | bitcoin | 3,934 | 2,714 | 0.0417 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | ethereum | 6,644 | 3,982 | 2.1082 | 166,880,843 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | bitcoin | 4,222 | 2,298 | 0.0315 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | ethereum | 7,011 | 4,693 | 0.8759 | 177,148,614 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | bitcoin | 3,355 | 1,687 | 0.0239 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | ethereum | 7,751 | 4,825 | 2.0780 | 278,092,607 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | bitcoin | 3,821 | 2,599 | 0.0679 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | ethereum | 6,348 | 3,962 | 1.6588 | 196,873,760 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | bitcoin | 6,120 | 408 | 0.0066 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | ethereum | 7,567 | 4,872 | 0.6912 | 216,926,761 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | bitcoin | 4,366 | 2,902 | 0.0548 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | ethereum | 6,244 | 4,018 | 0.2792 | 18,812,225 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | bitcoin | 4,208 | 2,345 | 0.0336 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | ethereum | 5,621 | 3,764 | 0.3460 | 179,338,141 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | bitcoin | 3,312 | 2,150 | 0.0778 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | ethereum | 6,204 | 3,875 | 0.9634 | 122,347,839 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | bitcoin | 4,217 | 2,260 | 0.0200 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | ethereum | 6,552 | 4,146 | 0.7037 | 188,107,777 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | bitcoin | 3,768 | 2,317 | 0.0245 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | ethereum | 6,567 | 3,800 | 1.2373 | 140,491,839 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | bitcoin | 4,275 | 2,517 | 0.0315 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | ethereum | 7,120 | 4,354 | 1.0896 | 198,550,583 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | bitcoin | 3,939 | 2,747 | 0.0267 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | ethereum | 6,286 | 4,140 | 0.5041 | 281,966,174 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | bitcoin | 4,225 | 2,773 | 0.0341 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | ethereum | 5,355 | 3,508 | 0.1838 | 26,767,663 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | bitcoin | 2,581 | 1,252 | 0.0129 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | ethereum | 5,537 | 3,382 | 0.4156 | 151,022,103 | 240 | 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | bitcoin | 2,926 | 1,661 | 0.0181 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | ethereum | 6,460 | 3,862 | 0.9360 | 477,505,876 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | bitcoin | 5,841 | 807 | 0.0103 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | ethereum | 9,259 | 5,768 | 1.7426 | 72,436,774 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | bitcoin | 2,974 | 1,973 | 0.0222 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | ethereum | 6,227 | 4,056 | 0.7329 | 611,941,812 | 228 | 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | bitcoin | 3,984 | 2,968 | 0.0584 | n/a | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | ethereum | 5,636 | 3,066 | 3.5244 | 184,616,492 | 228 | 20 |
From the attached chainstar warehouse. 'First to last block' is the time between the first and last block in the slice: a slice of seconds or minutes is a sample, not the day's total. On-chain z-scores compare a day only with at least 10 earlier days on which the same chains were loaded with similar block counts (analysis: onchain_coverage_tolerance, 10% by default), so a day with more or other chains loaded is not ranked. Stablecoins are counted by contract address, never by symbol.
Sources and attribution
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index: alternative.me (https://alternative.me/crypto/).
- News coverage data: The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- On-chain data and USD prices: chainstar (https://bitprimitive.com/projects/chainstar), derived on your computer from blockchain data and DEX swaps; no price service.
Commercial mode: this report uses only sources whose published terms allow commercial use, with the credits above, and on-chain data from your chainstar warehouse. The RPC provider chainstar read the chain from has its own terms. Keep the credits next to the data if you pass the report on; this is a reading of published terms, not legal advice (see SOURCES.md).
Made with sigstar 0.1.0.dev0 (https://bitprimitive.com/projects/sigstar). Not financial advice. sigstar shows analytics and the rules you define; it does not recommend buying, selling or holding anything.